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[eBook] 被平均的风险:如何应对未来的不确定性 by 萨姆· 萨维奇

[eBook] 被平均的风险:如何应对未来的不确定性 by 萨姆· 萨维奇

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Description

为什么人们对变化无常的事物进行风险评估时总是一错再错?为什么基于平均值的预测和决策在金融、医疗保健、会计、反恐战争和气候变化等各个领域总是漏洞百出?因为我们一直试图用“蒸汽时代”的统计学来把握“信息时代”的风险。 作者基于自己多年的咨询、培训经验和研究成果,列出了平均值的12条罪状,介绍了概率管理这一新兴领域,旨在通过新的统计学手段和技术工具,弥补平均值的缺陷,更好地揭示风险、把握不确定性。 本书可以帮助我们更有效地对未来的情况做出判断,从而制定出更合理的决策。


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